The 2023 delimitation exercise played a decisive role in reshaping Assam’s electoral map, significantly contributing to the BJP-led NDA’s sweeping victory in the 2026 Assembly elections, where the alliance secured a record 102 out of 126 seats.
The redrawing of constituency boundaries transformed the political landscape by restructuring several Muslim-majority seats and converting some into reserved constituencies for Scheduled Castes (SC) and Scheduled Tribes (ST). This shift reduced the traditional influence of minority vote banks, which had earlier been decisive in around 35 constituencies but were now limited to fewer than 25.
Election data shows that most of the 24 seats won by the opposition—including 19 by the Congress and two each by the AIUDF and Raijor Dal—came from constituencies largely untouched by delimitation. A significant number of these victories were secured by Muslim candidates, indicating that opposition strength is now concentrated in select pockets.
While the total number of Assembly seats remained unchanged at 126, the number of ST-reserved seats increased from 16 to 19, and SC-reserved seats rose from 8 to 9. Constituencies such as Barpeta and Goalpara West, which had sizable Bengali-speaking Muslim populations, were converted into reserved seats—both ultimately won by the NDA.
The impact was particularly evident in the Bodoland region, where reserved seats increased from 11 to 15. NDA ally Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) performed strongly here, winning 10 seats and reinforcing the alliance’s hold over tribal areas.
Both the Congress and the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) witnessed a steep decline in their traditional strongholds. The AIUDF, which had won 16 seats in the previous election, was reduced to just two seats.
Despite efforts to expand its footprint in minority-dominated regions—reportedly through allies like AGP—the NDA did not achieve major breakthroughs in those areas. The BJP itself did not field Muslim candidates, maintaining its focus on identity-driven electoral strategy.
Earlier, Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma had suggested that delimitation would create favourable political conditions for the BJP. The 2026 election was the first Assembly poll held after the 2023 delimitation exercise, which was based on the 2011 Census.
In the final tally, the BJP won 82 seats, while its allies BPF and AGP secured 10 seats each. The Congress finished with 19 seats, while the Raijor Dal and AIUDF won two seats each, and the Trinamool Congress managed one seat.
Political analysts believe that unless opposition parties reorganize their social alliances and political messaging, the NDA’s dominance in Assam is likely to continue in the near future.
